July and August steel market overall trend of the present off-season does not light, but the momentum slowed sharply in late August. Although September into season season, fundamental data, policy positive constant. But the Syrian crisis intensifies, crude oil and gold prices, like other commodities such as metals under pressure; In September the fed meeting lead QE exit immediately speculation, capital outflow from emerging markets; And domestic capital settlement at the end of pressure. The whole, the uncertainty of steel market in September, differences, or will be faced with volatile, is expected to iron and steel composite index range is 140-150, the target of 145.


The original fuel prices further slightly lower overall, but as the price picks up, steel is also facing stage. Domestic iron ore concentrate in July 990 yuan/ton, August spot iron ore prices rose to $140 / ton level, further steel mills profit improvement, production remains high, increased inventory demand, but also faces growing new supply. In the short term, the iron ore prices will remain at $120 - $140 / ton level, and the price of coke will have recovered.


2013 years, maintains the initial judgement, overall in the iron ore supply and demand balance, price elasticity is higher than steel, new iron ore production capacity of large-scale release after the third quarter, the stronger dollar will also be harmful to the price of iron ore. Iron ore prices reasonable center at about $110 - $120 / ton. After 2014, iron ore supply face substantial central or iron ore prices fall further, end face high premium era.